The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations on the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of at least a 35-basis-point hike in the interest rate to check high inflation. If raised, it will be the third consecutive hike in the repo rate -- the short-term rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance.
Rajan warned against waiting to act until inflation expectations become entrenched, but also said the Reserve Bank of India would overlook temporary spikes in inflation.
Titan surged 2.98 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, ITC, JSW Steel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Maruti. Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
Amid fears of a third wave of coronavirus pandemic and hardening of retail inflation, the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rate and watch the developing macroeconomic situation for some more time before taking any decisive action on monetary policy. The RBI is scheduled to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy review on August 6 at the end of the three-day meeting -- August 4-6 -- of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The RBI Governor-headed six-member MPC decides on the key policy rates.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday hiked repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent in order to control the rising inflation, keeping in line with the aggressive policies of central banks and the volatile markets prevalent across economies. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the rate hike today. In the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that started on Wednesday, five of the members of the MPC voted to hike the key lending rate, repo rate, by 50-basis points (bps).
Pressure has been mounting on the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates in the wake of declining retail inflation and the need to fuel growth momentum. However, the RBI will have to do a tightrope walk as globally interest rates are inching upwards.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the country's economy is an island of stability despite two Black Swan events and multiple shocks. "In an ocean of high turbulence and uncertainty, Indian economy is an island of macroeconomic and financial stability," Das told reporters during the post policy press conference. He said the financial stability, macroeconomic stability and resilience of growth is being witnessed despite two Black Swan events happening one after the other and multiple shocks.
A Kotak research report expects RBI to cuts rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2019. RBI will announce its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy on February 7.
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
Growth remains weak, inflation is within 2-6% range, rate cut would help recoup forex reserves
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) state of the economy report observed that any durable alignment of headline retail inflation with the target of 4 per cent could recommence in the second half of FY25 and sustain until numbers closer to the target are seen during the course of FY26, dashing hopes of any reduction in the policy repo rate in the current financial year. The report, authored by RBI staffers, including Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Patra, said though headline numbers may fall in July and August due to base effect, it is likely to reverse in September.
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
The RBI has doubled the limit of maximum balance that an individual customer can hold with payments banks to Rs 2 lakh from Rs 1 lakh earlier with immediate effect to expand the ability of such lenders to cater to the needs of MSMEs and other businesses.
In a tightening cycle, a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das opined while voting along with five other members of the MPC for raising the key lending rate by 35 basis points earlier this month, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. Prior to the December hike in repo rate, the RBI had raised the key short-term lending rate by 190 bps in four tranche.
For five consecutive policy reviews in 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chose to hold rates, citing inflation threat. And when the prices did cool off a bit, it reminded all about the target to get the headline consumer price inflation at 4 per cent and the risks from food inflation. Heading into the new year, all eyes are on when RBI will cut the rates, especially after one of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members stressed on the need for such an action in the face of the US Federal Reserve's guidance for easing rates.
With no rate cuts on the table, the other monetary policy alternative could be to reduce the width of the asymmetric policy corridor or increase in reverse repo rate when the pandemic subsides, they opined.
Observing that there is liquidity overhand of Rs 13 lakh crore in the system, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday that the exceptional measures undertaken during pandemic will be dealt in sync with macroeconomic developments to preserve financial stability. Since the onset of the pandemic, the Reserve Bank has maintained ample surplus liquidity to support a speedy and durable economic recovery, he said while announcing the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The level of surplus liquidity in the banking system increased further during September 2021, with absorption under fixed rate reverse repo, variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) of 14 days and fine-tuning operations under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) averaging Rs 9 lakh crore per day as against Rs 7 lakh crore during June to August 2021, he said.
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
Analysts at Barclays pitched for a 0.25 per cent cut to generate demand advising the central bank to throw caution to the wind.
As deputy governor, Patel headed the RBI panel to draft the monetary policy report, which became the basis of the ongoing reforms at the apex bank
While there are certainly more hawks perched on monetary policy committees of central banks around the world now than a couple of months ago, the doves still have the upper hand.
With the 115 bps reduction in repo rate beginning February, banks have already transmitted 72 bps to the customers on fresh loans and some large banks have transmitted as much as 85 basis points.
Manufacturing activities in India fell to a five-month low in September as new orders rose at a softer pace, which tempered production growth, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in September, down from 58.6 in August -- the lowest in five months. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 27th straight month.
The Reserve Bank of India has postponed the meeting of its interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee by a day to August 3 due to administrative exigencies. The RBI said the decision of the MPC will be known on August 5 as against the earlier schedule of August 4. "Due to administrative exigencies, it has been decided to reschedule the MPC meeting from August 2-4, 2022 to August 3-5, 2022," RBI said in a statement on Thursday.
Demonetisation to result in short-run disruptions in cash-intensive sectors like retail, hotels, restaurants and transportation, RBI said while announcing the Monetary Policy
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday expectedly left interest rates unchanged and maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces a renewed threat to growth due to the resurgence of coronavirus cases.
In the last three years, public sector banks have responded to the RBI's policy rates more strongly than private banks.
In policy review meet in June, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept interest rates intact.
Urjit Patel panel wanted all members to be appointed by RBI
The Reserve Bank's rate setting panel on Thursday met to finalise a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January this year, said sources. The report will be presented to the government as per the Reserve Bank of India Act, they added. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
The SBI report ruled out a October rate hike
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